A Method for Estimating the Impact of New Vaccine Technologies on Vaccination Coverage Rates
Vaccines are one of the most cost-effective tools for improving human health and well-being. The impact of a vaccine on population health is partly determined by its coverage rate, the proportion of eligible individuals vaccinated. Coverage rate is a function of the vaccine presentation and the population in which that presentation is deployed. This population includes not only the individuals vaccinated, but also the logistics and healthcare systems responsible for vaccine delivery. Because vaccine coverage rates remain below targets in many settings, vaccine manufacturers and purchasers have a shared interest in better understanding the relationship between vaccine presentation, population characteristics, and coverage rate. While there have been some efforts to describe this relationship, existing research and tools are limited in their ability to quantify coverage rate changes across a broad set of antigens, vaccine presentations, and geographies. In this article, we present a method for estimating the impact of improved vaccine technologies on vaccination coverage rates. It is designed for use with low- and middle-income country vaccination programs. As vaccine manufacturers and purchasers face increasingly complex decisions, such estimates could facilitate objective comparisons between options and help these decision makers obtain the most value for money.